Ukraine's Special Forces Take Another Village Near Pokrovsk From Russians

This action reinforces the growing number of reports revealing that Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk sector are continuing to counterattack and retake positions from Russian units. 

This suggests that despite the Kremlin's desire to take Pokrovsk, a year into their offensive effort they have not only failed to do so, but appear to be losing ground, largely because of casualties and equipment deficits. JL

Militarnyi reports:

During the clearance operation, Ukrainian soldiers eliminated several Russian occupiers and seized their communication equipment. This allowed units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and tactical groups of the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment to clear the area. Prior to the attack, Ukrainian UAV operators offered the enemy soldiers a chance to surrender using a loudspeaker mounted on the drone. After the Russians refused, the special forces infiltrated behind enemy lines, mined the building, and detonated it. The clearing was carried out in the village of Kotlyne in the industrial zone near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

At Kurakhove, 3 Russian Armored Attacks, Spotted, Trapped, Destroyed in 1 Day

Brute force Russian attacks on the Donbas front against strong Ukrainian positions have not worked for months - if they ever really did - but that has not stopped Russian commanders from continuing to order them.

Perhaps they get credit for trying even when they fail to succeed. Repeatedly.  JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

A Russian column of  12 armored vehicles, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and a Kamaz truck tried to bypass Ukrainian positions. (But)Ukraine had mined potential Russian attack routes and established new defenses while fortifying existing positions. Due to drone reconnaissance, the Russians were spotted on the approaches, as Ukrainians opened fire. The column drove right into a Ukrainian minefield, immobilizing the lead tank and halting the attack. Within thirty minutes, the entire first wave had been shattered, with 7 vehicles destroyed, 5 more damaged, and 40 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. A second wave was quickly neutralized. A third wave was then engaged and eliminated. 

Ukraine's "Trojan Horse" Drones Infect Kremlin Computers, Expose Russian Pilots

In an act of creatively malevolent genius, Ukrainian forces are now embedding malware in their drones so that if they are captured by Russian troops, the "Trojan Horse" UAVs can disable themselves - but only after they have infected Russian computer systems with disruptive malware and have identified the location of the Russian drone operators who have taken possession of them. 

This threat renders captured Ukrainian drones so much of a risk to Russian systems that it discourages re-use and thwarts potential reverse engineering intended to enhance counter-drone efforts due to the broader potential impact of the malware. Clever and lethal. JL 

Vikram Mittal reports in Forbes:

Ukrainian forces are embedding malware in their drones which performs disruptive functions, including “burning out the USB port, hijacking the repurposed FPV and revealing the operator location.” The malware is designed to prevent Russia from repurposing captured drones. It allows Ukrainian forces to hijack the repurposed drone to locate its new operator. This exploitation limit Russia’s reuse of captured drones. The threat of Ukrainian drone-borne malware infecting Russian computers hinder Russian updates to their counter-drone technology which requires extensively studying the internal working of an enemy drone to find its vulnerabilities. This extends the timeframe that Ukrainian forces could use a drone before it becomes obsolete due to Russian counter-drone technology.

New Tariffs Already Chill Spending For VCs, Startups, M&A, Software

The imposition of new, punitive, tariffs on the rest of the world by the US is having a double-whammy impact on venture capital investing and related spending for AI, M&A, enterprise software and even data center construction.

The immediate financial affect is a slowing down of investment, especially commitments by limited partners, as they await clarity about the durability of these threats and their longer term implications. That yearning for greater certainty may take quite a while to emerge. This means that VCs contemplating funding and startups hoping for operating funds may be on hold for months. This could also impact mergers and acquisitions as the economic rationale for them needs to be recalculated. The secondary impact is that costs for a wide variety of goods and services are rising - especially construction materials for data centers - impacting the growth and supplemental costs for AI investors. Overall, it appears that this will likely result in a pause in new spending. JL

Natasha Mascarenhas and colleagues report in The Information:

A stock market rout triggered by tariffs on Chinese and European goods is threatening to end the AI–powered gold rush that buoyed Silicon Valley for more than two years. Tariffs on imports, from smartphones and servers to building materials and motors, are impacting companies involved in AI data centers and robotics. The downturn will accelerate the fall of AI startups that were already struggling. The more than 20% drop in the Nasdaq risks cutting off new capital (as) it will get harder to raise money from the limited partners that back VC firms. The AI field has also been thrown into disarray, as the cost of new data centers under construction for OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic and others is surging. "Assume your [most recent VC] fundraising was your last one for a while.”

With Russia Daily Shell Firing Down By Half, Ukraine's Munitions Strikes Hurt

Ukraine's strategic targeting of Russian munitions and energy infrastructure is having a decided impact on the battlefield.

Russian artillery shell firing is down by half, and hits on oil and gas also affect the Kremlin's ability to launch attacks. The result is more opportunity for Ukrainian forces to attack in more places with less risk. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Ukraine is demonstrating a skill for hitting Russian oil and munitions facilities, which is having an impact on Russia’s war making capacity. The Russian army’s daily artillery shell usage has been reduced by half. which has had a significant impact on the tempo of Russian battlefield fire support activities enhancing Ukraine's freedom of maneuver. The destruction of Russian munition depots also has reduced the number of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine. This helps Ukraine to preserve its stocks of air defence missiles - and has given it time to develop improved defences against Shahed drones over the past year.

Multiple Russian Attacks On Donbas Front Repulsed With Heavy Losses

Russian forces continue to try to attack on the Donbas front but continue to be repulsed with heavy losses. 

While the Russians attempt to take more ground - or, at the least, try to appear to be offensively minded despite their staggering casualties and equipment destruction - Ukrainian defenders have continued not only to deny the Russians any significant gains but have retaken a growing number of positions and areas. JL 

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Within two hours, four separate Russian assault groups advanced toward the village of Bohdanivka from different directions — using foot soldiers, buggies, motorcycles, armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks. Ukrainian drone strikes and artillery destroyed two Russian tanks, two armored vehicles, four ATVs and four motorcycles, killing about 50 Russian soldiers before they could reach Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian forces also pushed Russian troops out of the village of Shevchenko, in the Pokrovsk sector 

New Tariffs Make Factory Building Even More Expensive, Time-Consuming

One of the theories driving the administration's new tariffs is that they will stimulate construction of new factories in the US. But businesses are now saying that increased costs driven by the tariffs may make new construction uneconomical, leading to canceled projects rather than an increase. 

In addition, the tariffs complicate supply chains, which will lengthen the time it takes to build new factories pushing the intended benefits further out into the future and reducing their impact on the US economy. JL 

John Keilman and Owen Tucker-Smith report in the Wall Street Journal:

The past three years have seen an explosion of U.S. factory investment, driven in part by billions of dollars in Biden administration subsidies for manufacturers as companies sought to shorten supply chains strained during the pandemic. (But) higher costs for imported materials and components could push up prices. The cost of metal panels, studs and structural steel would rise 20% to 30% over the next year. Plumbing equipment prices could rise as much as 10% and drywall 20%, alongside higher costs for generators, HVAC equipment, roofing products and insulation. “These confrontational measures are inflationary across the board.” Higher costs could price some projects out of existence.