A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 2, 2025

Russian Attack Between Pokrovsk, Kurakhove Destroyed

Even as the advent of wet, cloudy spring weather makes drone reconnaisance more difficult, the Russians have been unable to catch Ukrainian units off guard.

The attacks continue, despite inadequate troops and weaponry, because the Kremlin is hoping to add territory as a ceasefire bargaining chip and because it believes this will impress the Trump administration, despite the string of Russian failures along the front. JL

Militarnyi reports:

On April 1, near Novopavlivka, Ukrainian Forces repelled eight enemy assaults near the settlements of Kostiantynivka and Rozlyv. The Russians are aiming to capture the entire Donetsk region, so they do not spare their troops, constantly throwing them at Ukrainian positions. The enemy decided to take advantage of unfavorable weather conditions for reconnaissance to launch an attack on Ukrainian positions. (As the accompanying picture shows), after a successful drone strike, the ammunition inside the Russian tank ignited. The flames from the burning propellant charges erupted through the tank’s cannon. “The Russians failed to catch the defenders off guard. The convoy was stopped and burned.”

Growing Russian Attacks in Civilian Cars Lead To Spectacular Explosions - and Death

Russia's now chronic shortage of armored vehicles has now become well known. But rather than change tactics or wait for better equipment, the Russians are simply ordering their cannon fodder troops to attack in unprotected civilian cars and trucks.

The results are often spectacular, but not for the reasons the Kremlin may have hoped: Ukrainian drones, artillery and shoulder-fired weapons destroy with ease the vehicles meant for delivering vegetables or family outings, not for a war zone. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Still short of military vehicles despite the relief in Kursk, many Russian assault groups are riding into battle in Ladas, Buhanka vans, GAZ-69 trucks and other civilian vehicles. Lada assaults often end in disaster as the compact cars run over mines or get peppered by artillery or chased down by explosive FPV drones. One recent Russian assault was notable for how many unprotected vehicles it involved: four ATVs, 10 heavier vehicles, including one open-topped LuAZ-1302 and 31 motorcycles. It’s already suicidal to attack entrenched Ukrainian troops in a Lada. It’s even deadlier when the Lada is packing a TM62 mine with enough explosive to immobilize a tank. It exploded in a fireball 100 feet tall.

61% of Americans Polled Believe Trump "Not Being Tough Enough On Putin"

Despite the Trump administration's evident affinity for Putin and his authoritarian policies, they must also be mindful of US public opinion. 

For the past 100 years, Americans have embraced the belief that Russia is their enemy. That deep-seated feeling cannot simply be erased overnight. And with Americans' general sympathy for underdogs, Ukraine's having given the much larger invading Russian army a very bloody nose over three years of unequal war has also elicited support. That 61% of voters polled - a substantial majority in electoral political terms -  think Trump is not being tough enough on Putin signals that the US President does not have free rein to throw Ukraine to the Russian wolves, if that were his inclination, and that he will have to appear to be more balanced in his approach if he does not want to lose US public opinion in his peacemaking effort. JL

Martha McHardy reports in Newsweek:

A new poll reveals that a majority of Americans think President Trump is not taking a tough enough stance on Russian President Putin. According to the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, among registered voters, 61% of Americans think Trump is not tough enough on President Putin. That includes 44% of Republicans, 76% of Democrats and 65% of independents. While Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal for a total 30-day ceasefire, Russia continues to refuse unless its terms are met.

Investors' Discipline Remains Intact As AI Uncertainty Hits Markets

The discipline cuts both ways: VCs and other investors remain committed to AI - but corporations are proceeding more cautiously than the investing community would like because of persistent doubts about the cost and transformational efficacy of AI, especially in the near term. This has impacted markets keyed to anticipate huge short term payoffs that have, so far, been delayed, and whose realization, it is feared by more than a few, may be a mirage. 

This has affected markets because it stretches the growth and profitability timeline well beyond that promised by the hype machine. The promise of AI remains, but what shape that will take is proving to be less obvious than many hoped - and that is subduing markets given the disproportionate investment based on immediate success. JL

Mads Jensen reports in SuperSeed:

The Nasdaq 100 has plummeted 13%  from its February peak, with the Magnificent 7 tech stocks haemorrhaging $2.7 trillion in market cap since January—equivalent to the UK’s entire annual GDP. Is AI uncertainty hitting markets, or is this a temporary correction in a longer growth trajectory? Only 6% of US companies have implemented significant AI capabilities to date, suggesting we remain in early adoption.The IPO pipeline has strengthened, with more than 70 listings in the US during Q1 2025—90% above the same period last year. However, CoreWeave’s underwhelming debut demonstrates that while the window has reopened, investor discipline remains intact. The near-term economics of AI infrastructure face legitimate scrutiny. The broader transformation continues.

Apr 1, 2025

60-70 Kilometers of Russia's Kursk Oblast Still Controlled By Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces still control a substantial territory within Russia's Kursk oblast. And despite concerted Kremlin efforts to evict the Ukrainians, they have been unable to do so. 

This effort has been enhanced by Ukraine's Belgorod assault which has captured more Russian territory in the adjacent oblast. JL

Epp Ehand reports in ERR:

Ukrainian forces control between 60 and 70 square kilometers of territory in the Kursk region as of today, "despite significant efforts by the Russian side.  The Ukrainians are able to hold the territory they've captured in Kursk Oblast. Because of this, Russia is being forced to concentrate significant forces in that area in order to push Ukrainian troops out." Ukrainian forces have also made progress in the Belgorod region. "In the breakthrough areas, they have advanced two to three kilometers, aimed at seizing the initiative in the region and forcing the Russian side to divert its troops there in order to disperse and reduce pressure on other parts of the front."

Russian Tank Restoration Has Dropped 4X As Storage Bases Are Depleted

Russian tank restoration is four times lower than it was two years ago as Ukrainian drone, missile and artillery attacks have so depleted Kremlin inventories that some of the country's storage depots are being closed down due to the dearth of usable remaining armored vehicles. JL

Maryna Kulakova reports in United24:

The pace of Russian tank restoration has slowed by 3.5 to 4 times compared to 2022, making it insufficient to replace battlefield losses. For the first time, dismantling of “tank graveyards” was observed, confirming the depletion of combat-ready machines. The number of destroyed Russian vehicles rose from 1,000 per month in mid-2024 to 3,000 by year-end, attributed to Ukrainian drone development and a reduction in Russian armored vehicles.

Razor Wire Hauling Ground Robots Increasingly Repair Ukraine's Defense Breaches

When barbed wire barriers were damaged in the past, combat engineers were tasked with the repairs, a dangerous job given their vulnerability to aerial drone attack.

But increasingly, Ukraine is using ground robots loaded with wire to make the repairs. The bots connect their wire spool to the broken end and fix the breach. It saves time - and lives. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russian assault outside Pokrovsk left behind ruined Russian vehicle (but) it also wrecked a razor-wire barrier Ukrainian forces had erected. The Ukrainians swiftly repaired the barrier breach by deploying one of their razor-wire-hauling ground robots. A Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle laid fresh wire, taking over a dangerous task that once fell to sappers. Many Ukrainian brigades deploy radio-controlled UGVs for risky engineering tasks. The wire-laying robots are tracked vehicles with a bed in the back for a coil of wire. Driven to the front line by a remote operator seeing what the ’bot’s own camera sees, the UGV hooks the end of the coil onto existing wire and then unspools the coil.