US Special Envoy: "Russia Has Made No Progress in 18 Months. Will Not Win War"

A surprisingly negative - even brutal - assessment of Putin and Russia's performance and realistic expectations from the White House special envoy involved in peace negotiations. 

He would not make such comments without agreement from the president, which suggests that the US is turning up the pressure on Putin to agree to a deal. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Russia will not win its war against Ukraine, U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg said on May 1, pointing to the Kremlin’s failure to achieve any major progress on the battlefield over the past year and a half. “The Russians didn’t take Kyiv. They haven’t moved west of the Dnipro River. They haven’t taken Odesa. They’ve lost hundreds of thousands of troops, and they’ve really achieved nothing. They’re advancing by meters, not miles. And the Ukrainians are fighting hard on their own land." He said Russia must come to terms with the fact that it will not win the war. At the same time, he noted, Ukraine is in “a good position.”

Employment Indications: AI Is Now Competing With College Grads For Jobs

AI is impacting those white collar employees - even, or especially, in tech, who have the least experience and skills. JL

Derek Thompson reports in The Atlantic:

Labor conditions for recent college grads have “deteriorated noticeably” and the unemployment rate now stands at an unusually high 5.8%. The first theory is the labor market for young people never fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic—or, the Great Recession. A second theory is College doesn’t confer the same advantages it did 15 years ago. The third is that the weak labor market for college grads could be an early sign that AI is starting to transform the economy. "AI can do the kind of things that young college grads have done. They read and synthesize information and data. They produce reports and presentations.” And even if employers aren’t directly substituting AI for human workers, spending on AI may be cutting spending on new hires.

Points For Kills: Ukraine Embraces Video Game Incentives To Slay More Russians

Ukraine is embracing the incentives familiar to most of its younger soldiers: video game-like incentives that reward them with points redeemable for drones and other weaponry when they produce evidence of Russians killed or destroyed Russian vehicles.

An increase in the number of points for 'infantry elimination' led to a doubling of kills in one month. JL 
\

Veronika Melkozerova reports in Politico:

Ukraine's military is turning to incentive schemes used in video games to spur soldiers to kill more Russian troops and destroy their equipment. The program — called Army of Drones bonus — awards points when troops upload videos proving their drones hit Russian targets. An online marketplace allows troops to convert points into new equipment for their units. The scheme is aimed at directing more equipment to the most effective. 90% of the army's drone units have scored points. Magyar's Birds, one of Ukraine's elite drone units has16,298 points, enough to buy 500 FPV drones used, 500 drones for night operations, 100 Vampire drones and 40 recon drones. "We increased the number of points for infantry elimination from 2 to 6, which doubled the number of destroyed enemies in one month.”

Enlistment Signing Bonuses Are Costing Russia $21 Million A Day

Russians willing to join the military may now make more money in signing bonuses than most Russians earn in a year. 

But the strain on the national budget - combined with the scale of Russian casualties - suggests that Russia may only be able to continue the war for another year before the financial impact and the number of number of losses means that the country runs out of money, manpower - or both. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Russia’s federal and regional budgets spend 2 billion rubles ($21.5 million) per day on one-time enlistment bonuses, according to calculations based on data from Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Signing bonuses are now as high as $20,000 – more than many Russians earn in a year. Spending on military recruitment has surged five-fold since April 2024. If the current pace continues, total spending on enlistment incentives could reach 730 billion rubles ($8.9 billion) by the end of 2025 – half of Russia’s annual higher education budget and double its funding for the national “Healthcare.” Russia may only be able to sustain its current military manpower for another 12 to 16 months

Scooters, Bike, Cars Golf Carts Now 90% Of Russian Losses

Russian casualties and vehicle losses are now increasingly tied to the use of civilian vehicles, pressed into service as a desperate attempt to reverse, or at least reduce, the inordinate advantage Ukraine's attack drones enjoy on the battlefield. But the scale of the losses and the paucity of Russian gains suggest that these tactics are failing.

Could cavalry charges on horseback be next? JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The Russian armed forces are de-mechanizing. Unarmored vehicles now account for 90 percent of Russian losses along the front line of Russia’s 39-month wider war on Ukraine. For every tank or BMP fighting vehicle Russian regiments lose—and to be clear, they still lose hundreds of them every month—the regiments write off nine all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles, compact cars, vans, trucks, buses and even electric scooters that they’re pressed into front-line service as a desperate alternative to walking.

Why Russia's Sad Military History Bodes Ill For It's Ukraine War Prospects

Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine with a decided reputational advantage: it had long claimed pride of place among the victors over the Nazis  in WWII and was ruthless in subduing its weaker neighbors ever since. 

But subsequent research has revealed that status to be substantially overblown. In fact, Russia has lost more wars than it has won and almost always with incomprehensible casualties. Its military in WWII was saved by vast amounts of lend-lease supplies from its capitalist allies, who were fighting a global war against two enemies, while Russia battled only on the Eastern front. The Russian army was - and is - incompetently led, utterly corrupt and cruelly indifferent to the lives of its soldiers. Putin's failure in Ukraine reflects his and Russian citizens' refusal to learn those lessons. JL

James Holland reports in his substack:

The Red Army victory in WWII was enormous but was the product of the nation it was created to defend: cruel, corrupt and caring not a jot for the lives of its men. In Ukraine, despite having one of the largest militaries in the world, Russian forces have gained barely 20% of the country, have been invaded in turn and have suffered 900,000 casualties, as well as the loss of 10,000 tanks, 21,500 armored vehicles, 24,500 artillery and 370 aircraft.  The key all Russia's wars is (in)comprehensible casualties.  Anyone reading of (its sorry military history) – and high proportion of defeats - could think Russia is not very good at fighting wars.  And they’d be right. The Red Army was sickeningly incompetent, as it is to this day.  Putin, devoted to the legacy of the Great Patriotic War, has learned nothing. 

On the Oskil River, "A Lot Of Russians Have Been Killed. We like This"

Russian forces have been trying to cross the Oskil River for two years. It has become a charnel house, a wasteland of damaged equipment and unburied Russian dead. 

And that is exactly how the Ukrainians defenders like it. JL

Luke Harding reports in The Guardian:

Over the past two months, the Russians had scaled back their attempt to bring reinforcements across the Oskil because of heavy losses. As soon as Russian engineering teams build pontoon bridges his battery destroys them. “Our task is to stop them from crossing the river. We do this by firing at their logistics in the rear.” Three Russian armored personnel carriers were hit. They sank. Others got stuck on the bank and were finished off by kamikaze drones. The corpses of Russians soldiers lay around. “Sometimes they collect their dead. Sometimes not. A lot of Russians have been killed. We like this.”